{"id":1040,"date":"2013-08-28T13:30:35","date_gmt":"2013-08-28T05:30:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/morrisjfwong.com\/blog\/?p=1040"},"modified":"2014-06-26T20:41:07","modified_gmt":"2014-06-26T12:41:07","slug":"%e7%9f%b3%e6%b2%b9%e5%83%b9%e6%a0%bc%e5%8d%81%e5%b9%b4%e8%b6%a8%e5%8b%a2-%e5%a4%a7%e6%b3%a2%e5%8b%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/morrisjfwong.com\/blog\/%e7%9f%b3%e6%b2%b9%e5%83%b9%e6%a0%bc%e5%8d%81%e5%b9%b4%e8%b6%a8%e5%8b%a2-%e5%a4%a7%e6%b3%a2%e5%8b%95\/","title":{"rendered":"\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c \u5341\u5e74\u8da8\u52e2"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u3010\u7b46\u8a182013\u5e748\u6708\u3011 \u9b54\u65c5\u58eb\u6709\u500b\u7fd2\u6163, \u5076\u723e\u6703\u6574\u7406\u4e00\u4e0b\u67d0\u4e9b\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u8d70\u52e2. \u96d6\u7136, \u6211\u6f38\u6f38\u76f8\u4fe1\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790\u6c92\u6709\u5927\u7528\u9014, \u4e0d\u904e, \u770b\u770b\u50f9\u683c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u8da8\u52e2, \u61c9\u8a72\u5c0d\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7 \u76f4\u89ba<\/strong>\u662f\u6709\u6b63\u9762\u5e6b\u52a9\u7684.<\/p>\n

\u9019\u4e00\u9031, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u56de\u5230$110\u7f8e\u91d1<\/strong>, \u662f\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u9ad8\u9ede\u4e4b\u4e00!! \u5f9e2011\u5e74\u958b\u59cb, \u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u5c31\u843d\u5728\u7d04\u7f8e\u91d1$80\u5143\u81f3\u7f8e\u91d1$110\u5143\u4e4b\u9593. \u8aaa\u4e5f\u5947\u602a, \u7576\u9ad8\u6cb9\u50f9\u6642\u4ee3\u5f9e2007\u5e74\u5e95\u7206\u767c\u4e4b\u5f8c, \u4eba\u5011\u4e5f\u6f38\u6f38\u5982\u540c\u6eab\u6c34\u716e\u9752\u86d9<\/a>\u4e00\u822c, \u9069\u61c9\u767e\u5143\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u4e86.
\n

<\/p>\n
\"crude-oil-price-trend-20130831a\"<\/p>\n

2005~2013\u5e74\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c, \u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u5c31\u843d\u5728\u7d04\u7f8e\u91d1$80\u5143\u81f3\u7f8e\u91d1$110\u5143\u4e4b\u9593. Source: http:\/\/futures.tradingcharts.com\/.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/center><\/p>\n

\u8aaa\u771f\u7684, \u5982\u679c\u56b4\u683c\u6bd4\u8f03\u8d77\u4f86, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u8da8\u52e2 \u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u61c9\u8a72\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc \u9ec3\u91d1\u50f9\u683c\u8da8\u52e2<\/a>. \u9019\u662f\u6211\u500b\u4eba\u770b\u6cd5, \u7406\u7531\u5f88\u5e73\u51e1, \u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u985e\u7121\u6cd5\u5403\u9ec3\u91d1\u904e\u751f\u6d3b, \u537b\u4e00\u5b9a\u975e\u7528\u77f3\u6cb9\u4e0d\u53ef. \u56e0\u6b64, \u7576\u4eba\u5011\u8ff7\u6200\u65bc\u9583\u9583\u767c\u5149\u7684\u8cb4\u91d1\u5c6c, \u9084\u4e0d\u5982\u591a\u770b\u770b\u9ed1\u6f06\u6f06\u6cb9\u81a9\u81a9\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u54e9.<\/p>\n

\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5e74\u4e4b\u9593, \u4e16\u754c\u9084\u6709\u6709\u6230\u722d, \u9084\u662f\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u72c2\u4eba, \u5076\u723e\u4e5f\u7206\u767c\u570b\u5bb6\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f, \u4f46\u662f\u6cb9\u50f9\u537b\u6ce2\u52d5\u5f88\u6709\u9650. \u96e3\u9053\u77f3\u6cb9\u9019\u7a2e\u7dad\u6301\u4eba\u985e\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u77f3\u7684\u5929\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u7d72\u6beb\u4e0d\u53d7\u9019\u4e9b\u5f71\u97ff? \u4e5f\u6216\u8a31\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u63db\u89d2\u5ea6\u601d\u8003, \u4e5f\u8a31\u662f\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u64cd\u4f5c\u8b93\u6cb9\u50f9\u5f97\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u96e3\u5f97\u7684\u6050\u6016\u7a69\u5b9a. \u4e0d\u904e, \u6211\u9084\u662f\u4e0d\u559c\u6b61\u6cb9\u50f9\u52d5\u8f1235\u5143\/\u516c\u5347\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u9ad8\u6cb9\u50f9, \u5f88\u61f7\u5ff520\u5143\/\u516c\u5347\u7684\u597d\u6642\u5149! (2013-08-29)\"\"<\/p>\n

\u3010\u7b46\u8a182011\u5e7411\u6708\u3011 \u6574\u7406\u4e00\u4e0b\u6700\u8fd1\u7684 \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u5341\u5e74\u8da8\u52e2, \u9806\u5230\u63d0\u9192\u81ea\u5df1\u4e00\u756a. \u5f9e2008\u5e74\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u4e4b\u5f8c, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c \u53c8\u6162\u6162\u56de\u523095\u7f8e\u5143. \u6211\u60f3, \u4eba\u5011\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7d93\u5fd8\u4e86, \u5fd8\u4e86\u4e00\u6876\u5728\u7f8e\u5143$145\u6642\u7684\u760b\u72c2.<\/p>\n

\n2000~2004\u5e74, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u9084\u662f30\u591a\u7f8e\u5143, \u591a\u7f8e\u597d\u7684\u4e16\u754c.
\n2005\u5e74, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c \u7a69\u7a69\u7684\u7ad9\u4e0a50\u7f8e\u5143.
\n2006\u5e74, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c, \u4e00\u5ea6\u8d85\u904e70\u7f8e\u5143!
\n2007\u5e74, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u4e00\u8def\u4e0a\u6f32\u5230\u905490\u7f8e\u5143!
\n2008\u5e74, $145\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9ad8\u50f9, \u7dca\u63a5”\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4”\u628a\u6cb9\u50f9\u6253\u56de50\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0b.
\n2009\u5e74, \u5e74\u5e95, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u56de\u5347\u572870\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1.
\n2011\u5e74, \u5e74\u4e2d, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u56de\u5347\u572895\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

<\/p>\n
\"\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u5341\u5e74\u8da8\u52e2\"<\/p>\n

2002~2011\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9, source: http:\/\/futures.tradingcharts.com\/.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/center><\/p>\n

\u4eba\u5011\u5c07\u6301\u7e8c\u4f7f\u7528\u77f3\u6cb9, \u4e5f\u7121\u6cd5\u64fa\u812b\u77f3\u6cb9\u8207\u7164\u70ad. \u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u80fd\u6e90(\u98a8\u529b\/\u65e5\u5149..\u7b49)<\/strong>\u6216\u6240\u8b02\u4f4e\u78b3\u80fd\u6e90<\/strong>, \u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u53ea\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u4e4b\u4e00. \u77ed\u671f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u4e3b\u529b\u80fd\u6e90. \u89e3\u6c7a\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5: (1) \u63d0\u9ad8\u80fd\u6e90\u4f7f\u7528\/\u56de\u6536\u6548\u7387 (2) \u5584\u7528\u7db2\u8def (3) \u6e1b\u5c11\u904b\u8f38 (4) \u6e1b\u5c11\u4eba\u53e3 (\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u6700\u96e3).<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6: \u672a\u4f86, \u4eba\u985e\u9084\u662f\u8981\u9760\u77f3\u6cb9! (2011-07-17) \"\"<\/p>\n

\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f 2009\/12 \u767c\u8868\u7684\u820a\u6587\u7ae0<\/h6>\n

\u3010\u7b46\u8a182009\u5e7412\u6708\u3011 \u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u4f86\u770b\u770b \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u5341\u5e74\u8da8\u52e2: \u771f\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u5927\u6ce2\u52d5! 2005\u5e74\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u8207\u74b0\u4fdd\u5371\u6a5f…\u9019\u5834\u5927\u77f3\u6cb9\u79c0\u662f\u5f9e2005\u5e74\u4e4b\u5f8c\u958b\u59cb; \u81ea\u5f9e2005\u5e74\u4e4b\u5f8c, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c \u6f32\u783450\u7f8e\u5143\u5927\u95dc, \u958b\u59cb\u4e86\u4e09\u5e74\u7684\u760b\u72c2\u6f32\u52e2, \u914d\u5408\u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u6a5f\u8207\u74b0\u4fdd\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u6427\u98a8\u9ede\u706b, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c \u6210\u70ba\u5168\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u7126\u9ede\u4e4b\u4e00.
\n

<\/p>\n
\"\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u8da8\u52e2\"<\/p>\n

\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c 2001~2009 \u8da8\u52e2, source: futures.tradingcharts.com.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/center><\/p>\n

\n2005\u5e74, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c \u7a69\u7a69\u7ad9\u4e0a50\u7f8e\u5143.
\n2006\u5e74, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c, \u4e00\u5ea6\u8d85\u904e70\u7f8e\u5143.
\n2007\u5e74, \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u8da8\u52e2 \u4e00\u8def\u4e0a\u6f32\u5230\u905490\u7f8e\u5143!
\n2008\u5e74, \u5e74\u4e2d\u51fa\u73fe145\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9ad8\u50f9. Q3\u5f8c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u66b4\u628a\u6cb9\u50f9\u6253\u56de50\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0b.
\n2009\u5e74, \u5e74\u5e95\u7684 \u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c \u56de\u5347\u572870\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1…\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u672a\u4f86, \u4eba\u985e\u9084\u662f\u8981\u9760\u77f3\u6cb9! (2009-12-10) \"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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